New models better predict cardiovascular risks in survivors of childhood cancer

Survivors of childhood cancer often face chronic health issues from their cancer and treatment. Cardiovascular disease is among the most common noncancer ailment that leads to early mortality. Predicting which survivors are at the highest risk of cardiac conditions can improve screening efforts and catch the disease early when interventions are most likely to be impactful. Research led by the senior and corresponding author Yadav Sapkota, PhD, St. Jude Department of Epidemiology & Cancer Control, developed improved risk prediction models to help address this issue. The models use objective clinical data from the St. Jude Lifetime Cohort study (St. Jude LIFE) and are now available freely as online risk calculators for physicians to use to better care for survivors.

“We developed flexible risk prediction tools comprising a series of clinically relevant models that progressively incorporate additional predictors. This tiered approach allows clinicians to select the most appropriate model based on the data available in their setting,” said first author Kateryna Petrykey, PhD, St. Jude Department of Epidemiology and Cancer Control.

“We showed our model was much more effective in identifying patients with high or moderate risk of cardiomyopathy than current guidelines,” Sapkota said. “We did so by incorporating more information than just cancer treatment exposure into our models, categorizing patients better into the appropriate risk groups, which could help minimize unnecessary screenings and hospital visits for survivors at low risk.”

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